After more than two years in development, Aave has officially deployed its fourth protocol iteration on the Ethereum mainnet, introducing what the team is calling a fundamental redesign of the way decentralized lending works. The upgrade is built around a hub-and-spoke architecture that Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov says positions the protocol as the most resilient lending market in the world.

 

Speaking at DeFi Day during ECC in Cannes, Kulechov sat down with The ROLLUP to walk through what the upgrade means and where Aave goes from here. The conversation covered everything from the protocol's new risk tooling to its partnership with Chainlink, and for a protocol that has survived the FTX collapse, multiple bear markets, and various DeFi exploits without accruing bad debt, Kulechov's confidence did not feel misplaced.

 

A New Plumbing System for DeFi Liquidity

The core change in V4 is a shift away from isolated liquidity pools, the model that defined both V2 and V3. In the previous design, each market on Ethereum held its own separate pool of assets. Capital in one market could not serve borrowers in another, which made it notoriously difficult to list new assets or bootstrap fresh lending markets without starting from scratch.

 

V4 replaces that structure with a central Liquidity Hub that aggregates capital across the protocol. Specialized spoke markets connect to the hub and draw from its shared pool, each with its own risk parameters, collateral rules, and liquidation settings. Kulechov used the tranching model from traditional finance as a reference point, explaining it to The ROLLUP as three tiers: a plus spoke for riskier, tail-end opportunities; a core hub for risk-adjusted mainstream markets; and a prime hub for the conservative end of the curve.

 

The practical implication is that a builder wanting to list a newer, less-proven token can now plug into the plus spoke without needing to bootstrap liquidity from zero. If that market matures, it can work its way toward the core hub. "One of the biggest challenges for DeFi builders has been how to bootstrap their product and liquidity," Kulechov told The ROLLUP. "This is the perfect way where if you build something exciting, it can be connected into existing Aave liquidity."

 

That said, Kulechov was clear the gates are not wide open yet. Spoke creation remains DAO-governed during the controlled launch phase, with the protocol prioritizing security over growth in the early going.

 

Risk Management Gets a Real Overhaul

Two specific features stand out on the risk side. The first is risk premiums, which allow the protocol to price risk differently depending on the collateral type a borrower is using. Under V3, every borrower taking out a loan against a given stablecoin paid roughly the same rate. V4 changes that, layering in a variable premium so that riskier collateral positions carry a higher borrow cost.

 

The second is dynamic risk configuration, which lets the protocol update parameters for new positions without touching existing ones. Kulechov walked The ROLLUP through why this matters: "Configurations can be applied to new positions without affecting old positions," he said, describing it as fundamentally new tooling that simply did not exist in prior Aave architecture.

 

The security buildout behind V4 reportedly spanned more than a year, with roughly eight months dedicated specifically to hardening the protocol's infrastructure. Formal verification firm Certora worked alongside the Aave Labs engineering team from the earliest architectural stages, embedding smart contract protections into the design rather than treating them as a pre-launch formality. V4 launched with conservative supply and borrow caps across all three hubs, a posture Aave says is entirely intentional while the protocol proves itself in production.

 

Chainlink SVR Adds a Revenue Stream on the Liquidation Side

Running alongside the V4 launch is Aave's expanding integration with Chainlink's Smart Value Recapture product, known as SVR. The mechanism routes oracle price updates through a private channel ahead of the public mempool, allowing an auction to occur for the right to backrun liquidations. Value that would otherwise flow entirely to block builders and MEV searchers instead gets shared between Aave and Chainlink.

 

Kulechov explained the appeal of the integration to The ROLLUP in fairly direct terms: "It helps all the users and it also helps the Aave treasury," he said. "It's a balance of being able to get Aave, as a community, to capture some of that revenue that liquidations occur with, directly into the Aave treasury."

 

As a launch partner, Aave currently receives 65% of recaptured MEV with Chainlink taking 35%, a rate locked in for the first six months of the live integration. The Aave DAO voted unanimously to expand SVR coverage on Ethereum from roughly 3% of protocol TVL to approximately 27%, following a pilot period during which no bad debt accrued. The integration has since been extended to Arbitrum. Chainlink's own testing suggests SVR can recapture around 40% of non-toxic liquidation MEV, which at Aave's scale represents a meaningful addition to treasury revenues.

 

What Existing Users Actually Need to Do

For users currently sitting in V3 positions, Kulechov's message on The ROLLUP was simple: there is no urgency to move. V1, V2, and V3 deployments will continue operating as long as the underlying blockchains remain available. "Our V3 is a perfectly working system," he said. "There is no rush. We want it to be as organic as possible."

 

V4 does offer new collateral compositions, new hub options, and potentially improved rates depending on the position, but migration is purely optional for now. Aave Pro, the new interface designed specifically for V4, surfaces all hubs and spokes in a unified account view and shows real-time risk premiums and health factors. It is freely accessible despite the name.

 

When asked on The ROLLUP which category of protocols would benefit most if the tokenization thesis plays out and trillions of dollars of assets come onchain, his answer was concise: "Where Aave is sitting is in the middle of DeFi, stablecoins, and RWAs. And I think those three components make the future of finance." Whether V4 proves durable enough to support that kind of scale is the question the next few months will start to answer. But given Aave's long track record of delivering a quality product, we think that their success is a safe bet.

 

The Uniswap Foundation has released its unaudited full-year 2025 financial summary, showing the organization holds roughly $85.8 million in total assets and has enough capital to keep the lights on through January 2027 without tapping external financing. The numbers arrive at a pivotal moment for the broader Uniswap ecosystem, which spent 2025 shipping major protocol upgrades, welcoming BlackRock to its trading infrastructure, and finally putting a stubborn class-action lawsuit to rest.

 

A Treasury Built on Three Pillars

As of December 31, 2025, the Foundation's balance sheet breaks down into $49.9 million in cash and stablecoins, 15.1 million UNI tokens, and 240 ETH. At year-end market rates, the token holdings alone bring the combined figure to $85.8 million. 

 

The biggest driver of 2025 inflows was the Uniswap Unleashed governance proposal, which authorized a transfer of 20.3 million UNI from the Uniswap protocol treasury to the Foundation. At year-end valuations that was worth approximately $114 million, and it formed the backbone of both the Foundation's grantmaking ambitions and its operational runway through next year.

 

On the spending side, the Foundation kept a tight leash on overhead. Operating expenses for the full year, excluding employee token awards, came to $9.7 million, covering salaries, benefits and professional fees. This is a huge signal to governance participants that the organization is not burning capital faster than it deploys it into the ecosystem.

 

$26 Million in Grants, $106 Million Earmarked Overall

Over the course of 2025, the Foundation committed $26 million in new grants and actually disbursed $11 million to ecosystem builders, with $5.8 million of those new commitments authorized in Q4 alone and $2.1 million distributed in that quarter. The total allocation for grants and incentives now stands at $115.1 million, $99.8 million designated for commitments running through 2025 and 2026, and another $15.3 million reserved for previously committed grants awaiting disbursement.

 

A chunk of the multi-year grant book runs through 2029, reflecting a long-term bet on Uniswap v4 and the Unichain layer-2 network as foundational infrastructure. Some of those grants, particularly those given to Unichain launch partners, come with performance-linked repayment provisions, a mechanism that gives the Foundation downside protection while still offering meaningful upside to builders who hit growth targets.

 

Unichain Momentum and Product Shipping

The financial report lands against a backdrop of genuine product momentum. Uniswap v4, launched in January 2025, introduced the Hooks system, allowing developers to build custom liquidity pools with compliance features baked directly into the contract logic. By various accounts, about 75% of Uniswap v4 activity has since migrated to Unichain, the Foundation's own layer-2 network, which cuts transaction costs by around 95% compared to Ethereum mainnet. The ecosystem has grown to 1,500 or more active builders.

 

The Foundation also noted the launch of what Uniswap developers are calling chained actions, a feature that enables multi-chain swaps in a single flow, for instance moving USDC on Ethereum to cbETH on Base without manually bridging. That kind of cross-chain composability has been a stated priority for the team for a while, and shipping it reinforces Unichain's positioning as something more than a cost-savings vehicle.

 

BlackRock's BUIDL Arrives on UniswapX

Perhaps the single biggest headline surrounding the Uniswap ecosystem in recent months came in February, when BlackRock announced it would list its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, BUIDL, on Uniswap via the UniswapX trading system. The world's largest asset manager also disclosed a direct purchase of UNI tokens, an undisclosed strategic investment that sent the governance token up roughly 25% on the day of the announcement.

 

Trading BUIDL through UniswapX allows pre-qualified, whitelisted investors to swap the tokenized Treasury fund around the clock using stablecoins, with Securitize handling KYC and compliance and Wintermute among the market makers providing liquidity. Access is currently limited to qualified purchasers with at least $5 million in assets, so the immediate volume impact is modest. The strategic signal, though, is loud: a $14 trillion asset manager chose decentralized exchange infrastructure for its first DeFi integration.

 

Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's global head of digital assets, framed it as a step toward connecting tokenized assets with DeFi rails. Hayden Adams, Uniswap's founder, has suggested the same infrastructure will eventually serve retail-accessible products. The on-ramps are still being built, but the highway is open.

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What's Next For Uniswap?

With an $85.8 million treasury and a clearly defined runway, the Foundation is not in crisis mode. The more pressing question for token holders and protocol watchers is whether the UNIfication governance proposal, approved on December 26, 2025 with 99.9% of the vote and over 125 million UNI cast in favor, will translate into meaningful fee revenue. The proposal activated protocol fees on v2 and v3 pools and directed a portion of trading revenue toward buying back and burning UNI, effectively turning the governance token into something with cash-flow characteristics for the first time.

 

Early projections put annual buyback-and-burn revenue at around $22 million, a figure that grows as more pools and L2 deployments activate fees. If those projections hold, the Foundation's runway math looks even more comfortable than the headline treasury figure suggests. A lot can change in the next nine months of crypto markets, but heading into mid-2026, Uniswap is operating from a position of relative financial strength, institutional validation, and hard-won legal clarity.

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices and digital asset data firm Kaiko have tokenized a major US Treasury bond index and put it on a blockchain. The iBoxx US Treasuries Index, one of the most closely tracked fixed-income benchmarks in global finance, is now live on the Canton Network as a native digital asset. It is the first time a benchmark of this caliber has been issued directly onchain, and the implications for how institutional markets handle data infrastructure are worth unpacking.

To be clear about what this is and what it is not: the tokenized index is not a tradeable or investable product. Nobody is buying a token and getting exposure to Treasuries. What S&P and Kaiko have created is closer to a permissioned data pipeline, one that wraps licensing rights, compliance controls, and benchmark data into a single non-fungible token. Authorized institutions get access to end-of-day pricing, intraday data, and corporate actions through that token, without going through the traditional off-chain licensing and feed processes that have long been a friction point in finance.

 

Why Treasuries?

The choice of the iBoxx index as the starting point was not random. US Treasuries have become the de facto entry point for institutional tokenization activity, and the numbers back that up. The total tokenized real-world asset market sits at roughly $27 billion, and US government bonds account for the largest share of that, with more than $12.5 billion in Treasuries already issued onchain across various platforms. That is still a fraction of the nearly $28 trillion in outstanding US debt, but the direction of travel is not really in question anymore.

Cameron Drinkwater, Chief Product and Operations Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the rising use of Treasuries as onchain collateral is creating genuine demand for benchmark data that institutions can access natively on a blockchain. The idea is that as more financial products get built on-chain infrastructure, the underlying reference data needs to live there too. The iBoxx index serves as that reference for countless fixed-income products and strategies. Getting it onchain, in Drinkwater's puts it, is less about novelty and more about meeting clients where the market is heading.

Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran has made this point before, the absence of institutional-grade data natively onchain has been one of the persistent infrastructure gaps holding back the broader tokenization market. Asset managers, exchanges, and DeFi protocols that want to reference the iBoxx benchmark previously had to rely on off-chain integrations that were cumbersome and introduced certain data risks. The tokenized version eliminates that middleman step.

 

Why Canton Network?

The decision to launch on Canton Network rather than a more public or crypto-native chain reflects what S&P and Kaiko were aiming for. Canton is an institutional-grade public blockchain with over 600 participating institutions and validators. Goldman Sachs and Citadel are among its backers, which gives it a credibility for the kind of regulated players S&P is trying to reach. The network has also been building its Treasury infrastructure for a while: the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) has been running a tokenization service on Canton focused on US Treasuries, with a broader industry rollout expected later in 2026.

But the S&P play is not a solo move at all. Moody's recently integrated its credit ratings with Canton Network, and Bloomberg struck a deal with Kaiko in February to develop on-chain access for its Data License offerings through the same infrastructure, with an initial focus on Treasury and repo workflows. And the pattern is unmistakable, a cluster of major financial data providers is steadily converging on Canton as a shared layer for institutional-grade onchain data. That is a pretty meaningful development for the ecosystem, even if it is not generating the price-action headlines that typically drive crypto coverage.

 

RWA Tokenization Is Becoming The Play

The iBoxx announcement lands during what has genuinely been a breakout stretch for real-world asset tokenization. The total RWA market grew somewhere in the range of 266% through 2025, crossing $24 billion by early 2026. BlackRock's BUIDL fund, Franklin Templeton's onchain government money market product (FOBXX), and a growing roster of institutional players have moved from announcing tokenization pilots to running live products at scale. McKinsey has estimated the market could hit $2 trillion by 2030, a figure that felt wild two years ago and now seems more like a floor than a ceiling.

What is changing most visibly is not just asset issuance but infrastructure. For tokenized markets to function like real markets, they need reliable pricing data, trusted benchmarks, and compliance tooling that works natively in a blockchain environment. The S&P and Kaiko collaboration is an attempt to build exactly that, extending S&P's existing intellectual property protections and licensing frameworks into the onchain world rather than recreating them from scratch. The companies said the approach can be expanded to other indexes if demand warrants it, which is a clear signal that this is a product line in progress rather than just some one-off experiment.

The tokenized Treasury market has arrived at a point where the asset side is pretty well developed. The harder problem now is data and settlement: ensuring that when institutions build onchain products referencing US Treasuries, they can do so with the same data quality and rigor they would expect in traditional markets. S&P and Kaiko are making a direct play that institutions will pay for that, and given the trajectory of the market, that play looks like a very good one.

The iBoxx tokenization does not change what Treasuries are or how they behave. But it does change, how the financial infrastructure around them gets built. And at this stage of the onchain transition, infrastructure moves like this tend to matter more than they first appear to look.

 

If you’ve been following Cardano for more than five minutes, you know the running joke. Great tech, very principled, peer-reviewed everything... but also kind of just sitting by itself at lunch while Ethereum and Solana were out making friends. For years, ADA holders had to explain why their chain was “building” while everyone else was “doing.” That conversation is getting a lot easier now.

 

On February of 2026, Charles Hoskinson announced that LayerZero is being integrated into the Cardano ecosystem, sharing the groundbreaking partnership for the first time.

 

So what does this actually mean? Let’s break it down without putting you to sleep.

 

Cardano runs on something called the eUTXO model. Think of it like Bitcoin’s architecture but with smart contracts bolted on. It’s secure, it’s predictable... but it does not play nicely with account-based chains like Ethereum. Interoperability has always been kind of a mess, and Cardano has largely sat on the sidelines of the cross-chain party.

 

LayerZero approaches this challenge differently. It uses a messaging layer to send verified messages between chains, rather than relying on complex token-wrapping structures that are often targeted by hackers. That’s a big deal. No more sketchy wrapped tokens, no more liquidity scattered across isolated pools, and no more depending on some centralized bridge that could get exploited at 3am on a Tuesday.

 

That design reportedly opens access to around $80 billion in omnichain assets already connected through LayerZero standards. Eighty. Billion. Dollars. Let that number sink in. Got the gravity of it? Let's move on.

 

LayerZero’s Omnichain Fungible Token standard sits at the core of the integration. The framework lets assets exist natively across several blockchains. It removes that need for wrapped tokens and avoids splitting liquidity across separate pools, a problem that I mentioned earlier But it's important enough to state twice. That structure gives more than 700 existing tokens a path onto Cardano and Cardano on to them.

 

Cardano can now communicate with Ethereum, Solana, and over 160 other networks. For developers, that’s a completely different building environment than what existed just a few months ago.

 

This LayerZero integration didn’t just come out of nowhere, it’s part of a coordinated push by what’s being called the Pentad. The Pentad includes the Input Output Group (IOG), Cardano Foundation, EMURGO, Intersect, and the Midnight Foundation. Five organizations, one shared mandate: to finally stop arguing about roadmaps and start shipping. A move that was seen by many in the ecosystem as a breath of fresh air. Well, everyone except the trolls on X that seem to relish in FUD in hopes that Elon may send them a big enough check to move out of their mom's basement. I won't mention the names, but I am sure you know who they are.

 

And the Pentad has shipped, despite the current market trend. Oracle integration via Pyth Network improves price data reliability, analytics availability through Dune Analytics increases transparency and data access, and cross-chain messaging via LayerZero lays groundwork for interoperability. That’s not a wishlist anymore, those are done.

 

Then there’s USDCx. It addresses a separate infrastructure need by bringing a tier-one stablecoin rail tied to Circle, giving Cardano a recognizable settlement asset for payments, DeFi activity, and real-world asset flows. Hoskinson described it as better than regular USDC because it adds privacy and is immutable and irreversible, you can move straight from a wallet to Coinbase or Binance with instant convertibility. He said Cardano went from signing a deal with Circle to having USDCx live on the network in 84 days, calling it the number one stablecoin on Cardano already. 84 days. That’s actually fast for anyone, let alone a blockchain project.

 

Is this all enough? Honestly. It depends who you ask. Hoskinson argued the effort has moved Cardano from being “an island” to being connected to the broader crypto market, but added that the ecosystem still needs strategic capital deployment to help applications survive and compete. Infrastructure is the foundation, not the house. Developers still need to build, users still need to show up, and liquidity still needs to actually flow... not just theoretically exist.

 

But for a chain that’s spent years being told it’s “all potential, no product,” this is a meaningful shift. A very welcome moment for those here who believe in Cardano's potential. The rails are finally there. What gets built on them is the next chapter. And that next chapter could get very interesting.

 

 

 

Aave, the leading decentralized lending protocol, has launched on X Layer, an Ethereum-based layer-2 blockchain network developed by cryptocurrency exchange OKX.

 

The launch, which took place on Monday, March 30, saw Aave v3 integrated onto X Layer. The integration is intended to expand decentralized finance (DeFi) accessibility while also supporting the growth of the X Layer ecosystem, positioning OKX further as a DeFi hub.

 

Launched in 2024 by OKX, X Layer is a layer-2 blockchain built on top of Ethereum. It is designed to enable faster, lower-cost, and more scalable transactions compared to the Ethereum mainnet. 

 

 

Rather than processing all transactions directly on Ethereum, which can be slower and more expensive, X Layer processes transactions off-chain before settling them on Ethereum. 

 

According to OKX, the network can handle transactions at an average cost of approximately $0.0005, with processing times of around 0.4 seconds. It also uses zero-knowledge (ZK) technology to verify transactions while preserving data privacy.

 

The integration of Aave with X Layer is expected to enable DeFi users to conduct activities within the OKX ecosystem, including lending and borrowing crypto assets and earning yields, without relying on cross-chain bridges or additional DeFi infrastructure. 

 

Although X Layer currently has relatively low total value locked (TVL), at around $25 million, more than 100 DeFi platforms have integrated with the network, including Aave, Uniswap, and Chainlink for oracle services. 

 

The integration of Aave into OKX’s X Layer is seen as a step toward bridging centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized finance, potentially expanding access to DeFi services for OKX users. According to reports, X Layer has also seen a 20% increase in user activity following Aave’s integration.

 

 

Aave v4 Launch

The integration of Aave into X Layer comes amid the launch of Aave v4, which went live on Ethereum on March 30.

 

Aave v4 introduces a “hub-and-spoke” architecture in which liquidity is organized into hubs connected to multiple markets. The design aims to improve capital efficiency and interoperability, and it expands the protocol’s capabilities to support additional lending types, including fixed-rate lending and real-world asset (RWA) collateral.

 

Aave is currently the largest decentralized lending protocol, with cumulative lending volume exceeding $1 trillion, total value locked (TVL) of approximately $23.9 billion, and 24-hour trading volume of around $179 million.

 

 

Franklin Templeton, one of the largest asset managers on the planet, has formally partnered with Ondo Finance to bring tokenized versions of its exchange-traded funds to blockchain networks, allowing investors to hold and trade exposure to traditional financial products directly through crypto wallets, at any hour of the day or night. The announcement, made Wednesday, marks a meaningful escalation in the firm's already aggressive push into digital asset infrastructure.

 

Under the arrangement, Ondo will purchase shares of five Franklin Templeton ETFs, including FFOG, FLQL, FDGL, FLHY, and INCE, then issue blockchain-based tokens through a special purpose vehicle. Those tokens pass along the economic exposure, so holders receive the return stream of the underlying fund but do not technically own the underlying shares directly. Liquidity will be supported by Ondo's network of market makers, including during windows when traditional exchanges are closed.

The platform powering this is Ondo Global Markets, which launched in September 2025 and has already reported more than $620 million in total value locked and north of $12 billion in cumulative trading volume across roughly 60,000 users. That kind of traction, relatively early in its life, helps explain why Franklin Templeton was willing to put its name on this deal.

Sandy Kaul, Franklin Templeton's head of innovation, framed the initial ETF lineup in straightforward terms: the chosen funds offer a broad mix of exposures and a useful test case to see what actually resonates with a new audience. The products will initially be available in Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. U.S. availability, the firm said, hinges on further regulatory clarity around how third parties can distribute registered funds on-chain.

 

Making Moves

For those tracking Franklin Templeton's blockchain strategy, this is less a sudden pivot and more the next logical chapter. The firm launched its Benji Technology Platform back in 2021 and with it the first U.S.-registered money market fund to run on a public blockchain, the Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund. That fund has since grown to $557 million in assets as of February 2026, not a trivial number for a product built on infrastructure that most institutional investors were still treating with skepticism just a few years ago.

Kaul also made waves at the Ondo Summit in New York in February, where she argued that the next evolution of asset management would be what she called "wallet-native": a world where stocks, bonds, private funds, and more are all held and managed through tokenized digital wallets rather than fragmented across brokerage accounts, banks, and paper records. The Franklin Templeton-Ondo partnership is a direct expression of that vision, and it is now live.

 

The Race Is On

Franklin Templeton is not operating in a vacuum. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has surpassed $2 billion in assets under management. JPMorgan rolled out its My OnChain Net Yield Fund on Ethereum late last year, crossing $100 million in short order. WisdomTree and Fidelity have both signaled similar intentions. And just this week, the New York Stock Exchange announced a partnership with Securitize to enable tokenized securities trading on its platform. The momentum is real and it is accelerating.

For Ondo, landing Franklin Templeton as a partner is a significant credibility stamp. The firm's ONDO token carries a market cap above $1.2 billion, and the broader real-world asset tokenization market has grown to over $15 billion in total assets according to RWA data, up sharply over the past year. The question now is whether tokenized fund structures can attract meaningful adoption beyond the crypto-native crowd that already lives in wallets.

 

 

What This All Means

None of this is without complication. Tokenized ETFs do not immunize investors from market volatility. Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025 and was trading around $70,500 by late March 2026. Easy access to assets at any hour cuts both ways. Regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. remains a genuine constraint, with questions around compliance, investor identification, and how registered funds interact with decentralized infrastructure still unsettled.

Franklin Templeton has also partnered with Binance to allow tokenized fund shares to serve as collateral for institutional trades, which introduces new connections between regulated finance and crypto exchange infrastructure. That might be efficient under normal conditions, but critics will rightly note that interconnected systems have a history of amplifying stress in bad times. The 2022 crypto collapse left lessons that the industry has not fully metabolized.

Still, when a firm managing $1.7 trillion commits to blockchain as a primary distribution channel rather than a side experiment, competitors pay attention. The walls between traditional finance and crypto markets are getting thinner fast, and the Franklin Templeton-Ondo deal may end up being one of the more consequential ones to watch as this story unfolds.

 

Balancer Labs, the core team behind the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Balancer, has announced plans to wind down after a $116 million exploit that occurred in November.

 

The decision, according to CEO Marcus Hardt, was driven by the impact of the hack. Despite continuing to generate revenue, Balancer Labs’ economic model was no longer sustainable in the aftermath of the hack.

 

“We were spending too much to attract liquidity relative to what that liquidity was actually generating in revenue,” Hardt said. “We were diluting BAL holders to sustain a system that, in my view, was no longer serving the protocol well. At some point, you have to be honest about that.”

 

With Balancer Labs winding down its operations, the protocol is expected to be managed by the Balancer Foundation and its decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), an approach supported by co-founders Hardt and Fernando Martinelli. 

 

DAO members have been asked to vote on a proposal to restructure the protocol and its tokenomics. If approved, BAL emissions will end, all fees will be routed to the treasury, and the protocol’s share of swap fees will be reduced. The team size will also be cut.

 

So, while Balancer Labs, the core development team, is winding down, the protocol will continue operating under new management with a leaner structure.

 

 

The Balancer Protocol Exploit

On November 3, 2025, Balancer Protocol suffered a smart contract exploit targeting its V2 composable stable pools, resulting in the theft of significant amounts of cryptocurrency.

 

Although Balancer had a permission system in place, a bug in the smart contract allowed the attacker to bypass these controls. The attacker exploited the vulnerability to gain unauthorized access to the protocol’s shared vault system, enabling them to drain assets from multiple liquidity pools across different blockchains simultaneously.

 

The hack had a severe impact on Balancer, causing its total value locked (TVL) to drop from about $775 million to $258 million within days of the exploit, according to a report. Its native token, BAL, also fell by about 30%.

 

The shutdown of the Balancer Labs team comes weeks after crypto aggregator Step Finance announced its own shutdown following a January 31 hack that reportedly led to losses of between $26 million and $40 million from the protocol’s treasury.

 

Bunni, a decentralized liquidity protocol built on Uniswap V4, also shut down around October last year after suffering a hack that resulted in losses of about $8.4 million.

 

 

Resolv Labs’ stablecoin, USR, has lost its U.S. dollar peg following an exploit of the token’s contract that allowed attackers to mint millions of tokens.

 

The exploit, which occurred on March 22, 2026, resulted in the creation of 50 million unbacked USR tokens, prompting the team to temporarily pause the protocol’s functions to prevent “further malicious actions.”

 

 

According to YieldsandMore, which first reported the story, the attack began with a 100,000 USDC deposit by the attackers, ultimately causing USR to lose its dollar peg and fall to $0.01.

 

After minting the USR tokens, the attackers converted them into wrapped USR (wstUSR) to access deeper liquidity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). This allowed them to offload large amounts of wstUSR more gradually, reducing the risk of an immediate price crash of USR.

 

The next phase of the attack involved dumping and selling wstUSR tokens across multiple platforms, including KyberSwap and Velora. Using this method, the attackers swapped wstUSR for USDt and USDC, which were then aggressively converted into Ether (ETH).

 

Although the attack was first made public by the crypto research and analysis group YieldsandMore, the Resolv team was only able to pause the protocol three hours later.

 

“It took ResolvLabs three hours to pause its protocol. Roughly one hour of that delay came from the gap between submitting the multisig transaction and collecting the four required signatures to execute it,” YieldsandMore wrote on X.

 

While 50 million tokens were initially minted by the attackers, blockchain security company PeckShield reported that an additional 30 million USR tokens were later minted, bringing the total to approximately 80 million.

 

 

Price Action of USR in the Aftermath of the Exploit

The minting and dumping of USR tokens triggered a severe depeg, sending its price from $1 to roughly $0.02 to $0.05 within minutes, a decline of about 95 to 97%.

 

Although it briefly rebounded to between $0.14 and $0.20, USR is currently trading at $0.2773, according to data from CoinMarketCap at the time of publication. 

 

The USR depeg ranks among the most severe in recent history, second only to the collapse of Terra's TerraUSD (UST) in 2022, which fell from $1 to $0.02 and lost 98% of its value. Iron Finance also had its IRON stablecoin lose its dollar peg, dropping from $1 to about $0.05.

 

 

For most of the past decade, the conversation around artificial intelligence and crypto stayed largely theoretical. Two industries, both moving fast, both attracting enormous capital, but mostly running on parallel tracks. That started to change in late 2024, and by early 2026 the overlap had become hard to ignore. MoonPay, the crypto payments firm that built its name on fiat-to-crypto on-ramps, is now positioning itself as the financial infrastructure layer for a future where AI agents don't just analyze markets but actively participate in them.

 

On February 24, the company officially launched MoonPay Agents, a non-custodial software layer built on top of MoonPay CLI, its developer-focused command-line interface. The product gives autonomous AI systems the ability to generate wallets, fund them through fiat on-ramps or crypto transfers, execute on-chain trades, and convert holdings back to fiat, all without requiring a human to approve each individual step. Less than three weeks later, on March 13, MoonPay followed up with a second announcement: a deep integration with Ledger, the hardware wallet maker, designed to let users sign off on AI-initiated transactions directly from a physical device.

 

MoonPay CEO Ivan Soto-Wright put it bluntly in the launch statement: "AI agents can reason, but they cannot act economically without capital infrastructure." The line is a bit pithy, but it captures the actual gap. Building a bot that can identify an arbitrage opportunity across three chains is a solved problem in 2026. Building one that can act on that opportunity, fund itself, execute the trade, and off-ramp the proceeds into a bank account without exposing private keys or requiring a human babysitter is not.

 

MoonPay Agents is designed to close that gap. The setup is relatively straightforward: a developer installs MoonPay CLI, a user completes a one-time KYC verification, funds a wallet, and grants the agent permission to transact within defined parameters. After that initial handshake, the agent can operate independently. Wallets are non-custodial and stored locally on the user's device using OS keychain encryption. Private keys never leave the machine. Spending limits and pre-execution transaction simulations serve as guardrails against runaway agents doing something unintended.

 

 

What Is Moonpay Agents?

The product ships with 54 tools across 17 categories, covering most of what a developer building a financially active agent would actually need. That includes real-time cross-chain swaps, recurring buy schedules, portfolio tracking, token discovery and analysis, multi-chain deposit links with automatic stablecoin conversion, fiat funding via virtual accounts that accept bank transfers, Apple Pay, Venmo, and PayPal, and the ability to off-ramp back to traditional currencies from the terminal.

 

Multi-chain coverage at launch spans Ethereum, Solana, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, BNB Chain, Avalanche, TRON, and Bitcoin. Over 100 tokens are supported. Developers can also extend the platform with custom skills. The system is compatible with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok, and can be accessed via the CLI, a local Model Context Protocol server, or a web chat interface.

 

One detail that has caught the attention of developers in the agentic AI space is native x402 support. The x402 protocol, introduced by Coinbase in May 2025, revives the long-dormant HTTP 402 status code to enable machine-to-machine payments using stablecoins, with no API keys or subscriptions required. An agent simply pays for a resource or service at the time of access. MoonPay's inclusion of x402 compatibility positions MoonPay Agents within the emerging standard that Stripe, QuickNode (which extended x402 support across more than 80 chains), and a growing number of infrastructure providers have rallied around.

 

MoonPay Agents is not architected for one or two bots. The infrastructure is built to support thousands, eventually millions, of agents running concurrently across use cases that range from trading and portfolio management to gaming economies, commerce automation, and corporate treasury operations.

 

 

The Ledger Integration

MoonPay's solution was to bring Ledger into the loop. By integrating Ledger's Device Management Kit into the CLI wallet for MoonPay Agents, the company now allows every AI-generated transaction to be routed through a physical hardware device for approval. The agent constructs and proposes the transaction. The user confirms it on the Ledger. Private keys never touch the software layer at any point.

 

MoonPay says this makes the CLI wallet the first agent-focused wallet to support Ledger's secure signing through the Device Management Kit. Soto-Wright put the strategic framing plainly: "Autonomous agents will manage trillions in digital assets. But autonomy without security is reckless. We built MoonPay Agents with Ledger so intelligence can scale without surrendering control. The agent executes. The human stays in the loop."

 

Ledger's chief experience officer, Ian Rogers, acknowledged that the partnership reflects a real shift in what wallet infrastructure needs to support. "There is a new wave of CLI and agent-centric wallets emerging," he said, "and these will need Ledger security as a feature, too." It is a meaningful endorsement from a company whose entire value proposition is built on the premise that hardware is the only storage you can actually trust.

 

The model that results from the integration is structurally similar to two-factor authentication in traditional finance: the AI handles the analytical and execution work, but physical confirmation is required to release funds. Even a fully compromised software environment cannot move money without the physical Ledger device and its PIN.

 

 

What This Means for Developers

For developers building agents that need to touch money, the practical implications of MoonPay Agents are fairly direct. The product abstracts away most of the hard parts: custody, key management, fiat connectivity, cross-chain routing, compliance. A single CLI install and a one-time user verification is genuinely all that stands between a developer and an agent that can fund itself, trade across chains, and off-ramp back to a bank account.

 

The ability to add custom skills also matters. MoonPay Agents ships with 54 tools across 17 categories, but the open extension model means developers can build on top of the existing toolkit rather than working around its edges. That kind of extensibility is usually what determines whether a platform becomes a default or a footnote.

 

What remains to be seen is how the ecosystem grows around it. MoonPay has the infrastructure and the user base. The question now is whether developers building the next generation of agentic applications pick MoonPay Agents as their default financial layer, or whether a competitor, or a collection of open standards, fills that space instead.

 

 

A Structural Shift, Not a Feature Launch

It is worth stepping back from the product details for a moment to consider what MoonPay is actually doing here. This is not a company adding AI features to an existing payments product. It is a payments company making a deliberate bet that the financial system is about to acquire a new class of participant, one that is not human, that will require infrastructure designed specifically for machine-speed, machine-scale capital movement, and that will need to be anchored to compliant fiat rails if it is ever going to interact with the broader economy.

 

That bet is not obviously wrong. Stablecoin volumes are growing at rates that would have seemed implausible even two years ago. Agent tokens and AI-driven trading systems are proliferating faster than most infrastructure providers anticipated. The convergence of AI and crypto, long discussed in the abstract, is becoming a concrete engineering problem that real companies are being paid to solve.

 

MoonPay's move is a claim that it has already built most of what that future requires, and that the work of this moment is connecting those existing rails to the autonomous systems that will run on them. It is an ambitious claim. The next 18 months will do a lot to determine whether it holds up.

 

 

 

 

Something shifted in Washington on Friday, and the people who have been watching the CLARITY Act back and forth for months could feel it. Two key lawmakers, Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, reached an agreement in principle on one of the most stubbornly contested provisions in the bill: stablecoin yield. It is the kind of deal that, when the details finally shake out, may well be remembered as the moment the United States stopped kicking the crypto regulatory can down the road.

 

The news broke late Friday and was first reported by Politico. Senator Alsobrooks confirmed it plainly. "Sen. Tillis and I do have an agreement in principle," she said. "We've come a long way. And I think what it will do is to allow us to protect innovation, but also gives us the opportunity to prevent widespread deposit flight." The White House's crypto executive director, Patrick Witt, called it a "major milestone" and added that more work remains, but that progress toward passing the CLARITY Act was now real and tangible.

 

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's crypto subcommittee and has been one of the most tireless advocates for this legislation, marked the occasion in her own way. She posted a photo on X of a "yield" sign. No caption needed.

 

 

The Stablecoin Yield Standoff, Explained

For months, the stablecoin yield question was the immovable object blocking the CLARITY Act from getting its Senate Banking Committee hearing. 

 

The GENIUS Act, signed into law by President Trump in July 2025, prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders. The intent was to prevent stablecoins from functioning as de facto bank deposit accounts, which would put them in direct competition with traditional savings products and, as the American Bankers Association argued loudly, threaten deposit flows into community banks. The concern: if Coinbase or another platform could offer users 4% on their dollar-pegged tokens simply for holding them, why would anyone keep money in a checking account?

 

The problem is that the GENIUS Act only covered issuers. It left a gap for third-party platforms that might offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins on their systems. The ABA saw this as a loophole and spent months in Washington lobbying to close it. Crypto companies, for their part, said those rewards programs were fundamentally different from deposit interest and should be allowed.

 

Section 404 of the Senate Banking Committee's draft tried to thread this needle. It prohibits digital asset service providers from paying interest or yield "solely in connection with the holding of a payment stablecoin," while explicitly allowing "activity-based" rewards tied to transactions, payments, platform use, loyalty programs, liquidity provision, and other behaviors. The distinction is real: a reward for moving money through a system is not the same thing as interest paid for parking money in one.

 

Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican on the Banking Committee, captured the nuance at an ABA summit earlier this month: rewards cannot be simply about how much money sits in an account, but they might reasonably be tied to how active that account is. "We're trying to reflect that in the discussions," he said.

 

Lummis had suggested the final compromise would disallow anything that "sounds like banking product terminology" and bar rewards tied to the size of a user's balance. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, whose withdrawal of support in January helped torpedo a scheduled markup hearing, has been described by Lummis as "really pretty good about being willing to give on this issue."

 

 

From 99% to Done

The past week has been a rapid acceleration. As recently as Thursday, sources familiar with the situation described the stablecoin yield issue as being on the verge of resolution. A closed Senate Republican meeting on Wednesday, attended by White House crypto council director Patrick Witt, produced what Lummis told reporters afterward were significant breakthroughs, with "major light bulbs" switched on among the participants.

 

FinTech Weekly, which has closely tracked the legislative calendar, reported that stablecoin yield negotiations were "99% of the way to resolution" coming out of that meeting. The digital asset provisions of the bill more broadly were described as being in a "good place." The remaining friction, sources said, was not technical but political, specifically around whether community bank deregulation provisions might be attached to the CLARITY Act as part of a broader legislative trade.

 

Then came Friday's agreement. "We've come a long way," Alsobrooks told Politico, with a formality that understated just how much ground has been covered since January, when the scheduled markup hearing collapsed under the weight of over 100 proposed amendments and an industry revolt over the yield language.

 

 

What Comes Next and Why the Timeline Matters

An agreement on yield does not mean the CLARITY Act is done. Several other issues need resolution, decentralized finance remains a live debate, and the bill still needs to clear the Senate Banking Committee before it can go to a full Senate vote. After that, it must be reconciled with the version that passed the Senate Agriculture Committee in January. And before the President can sign it, that combined Senate text has to be reconciled with the House-passed version from July 2025. 

 

But the clock is ticking here. Senate Majority Leader John Thune controls the floor calendar, and it is crowded. Unrelated fights, including the Republican voter-ID bill and ongoing debate over the situation in Iran, are competing for limited floor time. Haun Ventures CEO Katie Haun, in a CNBC interview Friday, put it directly: "The big question on the Clarity Act is, is Congress going to get a bill to the floor on time to vote?"

 

Lummis has said she expects a Banking Committee hearing in the latter half of April, after the Easter recess. Advocates have been hoping for a May resolution. Prediction markets are currently pricing the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed in 2026 at around 72%, according to FinTech Weekly. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described passage as a spring 2026 target. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has put the odds at 80 to 90%.

 

JPMorgan analysts have described CLARITY Act passage by midyear as a positive catalyst for digital assets, pointing to regulatory clarity, institutional scaling, and tokenization growth as the key drivers. The crypto industry committed nearly $150 million to the Fairshake political action committee in the current cycle and announced a $193 million war chest around the Agriculture Committee markup in January. The companies behind that spending are waiting.

 

 

What This All Means

The stakes of the CLARITY Act extend well beyond Senate procedure. Markets are waiting. Institutions that have been slowly building out crypto infrastructure, custody solutions, tokenized asset offerings, trading desks, need to know what the rules are before they can fully commit capital and resources. The SEC's interpretation helps, but as Atkins himself acknowledged, it is not a substitute for law.

 

The CLARITY Act, if signed, would give the CFTC clear jurisdiction over most digital asset spot markets, create a path to register exchanges and brokers, establish consumer protections with real enforcement teeth, and provide the kind of statutory framework that companies can build businesses around. It would, in the language of its Senate Banking Committee sponsors, establish the United States as the crypto capital of the world, not just by rhetoric but by law.

 

If the bill fails this year, the status quo continues. Crypto companies operate under regulatory uncertainty. The SEC retains broad discretion to treat digital assets as securities. Institutional adoption continues but without a clear statutory framework. And the crypto lobby, which has made clear it will treat failure as a political liability, turns its $193 million war chest into something that looks a lot more like electoral pressure.

 

Friday's agreement does not guarantee passage. It does something important though. It removes the single biggest substantive obstacle to moving forward. The stablecoin yield question, which derailed a January markup hearing and has consumed months of negotiations, now has a resolution in principle. The path ahead still has obstacles, but for the first time in a while, it looks like an actual path.

 

Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks just handed the crypto industry something it has been asking for since the last bull market: a credible signal that Washington is finally going to do its job. The deal is in principle, the details are not yet public, and there is still legislative work ahead. But after years of false starts, shelved bills, collapsed markup hearings, and agency standoffs, this is the moment the trajectory changed.

 

 

Tally, a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) governance platform built on Ethereum, is shutting down after five years of operation in the crypto industry.

 

The decision, according to co-founder and CEO Dennison Bertram, was driven by a lack of sustainability in the decentralized governance tooling industry. Despite its success as a DAO governance platform, Bertram said Tally had not yet realized its original vision.

 

“We have spent years championing the DAO vision. But at some point, you have to accept the world as it is, not as you hoped it would be. The reality is that we can no longer build a viable business around this,” he said.

 

Bertram also said Tally will not move forward with its ICO plans, adding that the team was not confident it could fulfill any promises it would make to token holders if it sold them tokens.

 

Prior to the announcement, Tally had built a notable presence in the crypto space, including:

• Serving over one million users, with tens of millions of tokenholder addresses participating in governance through its platform.
• Processing more than $1 billion in crypto payments and, at one point, helping secure over $80 billion through systems it supported.
• Supporting hundreds of organizations on its governance platform, including Uniswap DAO, Arbitrum, zkSync, Wormhole, and EigenLayer.

 

Reflecting on these successes, as well as Tally’s ability to avoid major security incidents and navigate regulatory uncertainty under the previous SEC chair, Tally CEO Dennison Bertram said he was “incredibly proud” of what the team had accomplished.

 

Although the team will wind down operations by the end of the month, it is working with major partners to ensure its enterprise clients continue to be served and will keep its interface live until the transition is complete.

 

 

The Crypto Community Reacted

The announcement of Tally’s shutdown was met with disappointment across the crypto community, with some describing it as the “end of an era” and others recounting their experiences using the platform during the early days of Arbitrum and Uniswap governance.

 

“I still remember writing governance proposals for Uniswap on Tally back in 2021. Those were fun times. It’s disappointing that DAOs didn’t meet expectations. While stablecoins have achieved the strongest product-market fit in crypto, I still believe DAOs will ultimately get there, though perhaps not for another three to 10 years,” said Getty Hill, CEO of DeFi trading platform Oku Trade.

 

“Human labor coordination is one of the hardest problems. DAOs will need to evolve, and their applications must improve. The 2020–2021 era of DAO governance was a lot of fun,” he added.

 

 

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's digital assets subcommittee and has spent the better part of two years shepherding the crypto industry's most ambitious legislative goal, walked into the Digital Chamber's DC Blockchain Summit and told a packed room what a lot of people in the industry had stopped expecting to hear.

"We think we've got it," she said. "We really are going to get it out of the banking committee in April."

That's a bigger deal than it might sound. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the comprehensive crypto framework that cleared the House in a 294-134 bipartisan vote back in July 2025, has been grinding through Senate committees ever since, chewing through months of negotiations, a January markup that collapsed hours before it was scheduled to begin, and a dispute over stablecoin yield that managed to put banking lobbyists, crypto firms, and Democratic senators all at odds simultaneously. For a while, it looked like the whole thing might just quietly die before the 2026 midterms swallowed the calendar.

Apparently not, if Lummis is certain on the new deal being made.

 

The Stablecoin Yield Fight, Explained
To understand how we got here, it helps to understand the fight that almost killed this bill. After the House passed its version, the Senate Banking Committee got to work on its own draft. In January 2026, committee staff released a 278-page bill that took a firm stance: digital asset service providers could not offer interest or yield to users simply for holding stablecoin balances, though rewards or activity-linked incentives were still on the table.

Banking groups hated the carve-out. The American Bankers Association lobbied hard against any yield provision, arguing that if crypto platforms could pay customers to hold stablecoins, those customers might pull deposits from community banks. Coinbase, meanwhile, had built a profitable stablecoin rewards program and wasn't eager to see it legislated away. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reportedly signaled opposition to an early compromise attempt, and within hours of the January 14 scheduled markup, committee leadership postponed it indefinitely.

That delay rattled markets, contributed to what analysts at CoinShares estimated as nearly $1 billion in crypto market outflows, and sent lobbyists back to their whiteboards.

The White House held at least three separate meetings over the following weeks to try to broker a deal. And now, Lummis says, a compromise has landed. Crypto platforms will not be able to offer rewards programs using language that sounds like banking products, whether that means using terms like "yield," "interest," or anything that ties payouts to how much a user holds rather than what they do.

"Anything that sounds like banking product terminology will not appear," Lummis said. She added that Armstrong had been "really pretty good about being willing to give on this issue," a notable shift from his earlier posture.

Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican on the committee, confirmed the trajectory in a video statement at the same event, saying Senators Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, and Thom Tillis, a Republican, are in the final stages of the stablecoin talks alongside the White House. "Once they all sign off," Moreno said, it's "go time."

 

DeFi Disputes Quietly Shelved
DeFi was the other thing that kept lobbyists up at night. Decentralized finance protocols, which allow users to lend, borrow, and trade digital assets without going through a traditional intermediary, sit in a legal grey zone that both Democrats and Republicans approached with very different instincts.

Democrats wanted oversight that was on par with federally regulated financial firms. The crypto industry, somewhat predictably, wanted software developers and peer-to-peer activity protected from being treated as financial intermediaries. The House version of the bill had already tried to thread this needle by drawing a line between control and code: developers who publish or maintain software without directly handling customer funds would not be classified as financial intermediaries. Centralized entities that interact with DeFi protocols would face tailored requirements.

According to Lummis, those DeFi disagreements have been "put to bed." She didn't go into detail, but Senate Banking Committee materials describe the bill's approach as targeting control rather than code, and requiring risk management and cybersecurity standards for centralized intermediaries that touch DeFi, while leaving non-custodial software development out of scope.

 

The Ethics Problem Won't Go Away
Not everything is resolved. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat who has been one of Lummis's most consistent bipartisan partners on crypto legislation over the years, made clear at the same summit that there is still a major outstanding demand from her caucus.

Democrats want the bill to include an explicit ban on senior government officials personally profiting from the crypto industry. The reasoning for this is not very subtle, especially in heated partisanship of Washington these days: President Donald Trump and his family are tied to World Liberty Financial, a crypto platform that launched a stablecoin last year, and Trump's crypto-linked ventures have given Democrats a consistent line of attack.

"It's very important that we include this," Gillibrand said on Wednesday, adding that no government official in Congress or the White House should "get rich off their position and their knowledge base." Including such a restriction, she argued, would "unlock many more votes" from Democrats.

Lummis has previously said she took a compromise ethics provision to the White House and was rebuffed. Trump administration officials have repeatedly stated that the president's family's participation in digital asset businesses does not represent an inappropriate conflict of interests. The practical read from lobbyists: Republicans are unlikely to pass language that targets the leader of their own party.

The House bill, for its part, does include language specifying that existing ethics statutes already bar members of Congress and senior executive branch officials from issuing digital commodities during their time in public service. Whether that satisfies Democrats in the Senate is another matter.

 

Where the Bill Stands Procedurally
The legislative path from here still has a few moving parts. The Senate Agriculture Committee cleared its version of a crypto market structure bill, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, in late January 2026. That bill covers the CFTC-related side of the regulatory picture, including commodity market oversight, exchange registration, and derivatives. It passed over the objections of Democratic members who tried and failed to push through a series of amendments.

The Senate Banking Committee bill, now expected to go through a markup in late April after the Easter recess, would handle the SEC-related provisions: investor protections, securities treatment of digital assets, and stablecoin regulation. Once it clears that committee, both Senate bills need to be reconciled and merged before heading to a full Senate floor vote. That combined version would then need to be aligned with the House-passed CLARITY Act before a single final bill could reach Trump's desk.

That's a lot of steps. Lummis, who announced in December that she will not seek re-election, seems acutely aware of the time pressure. "This may be our only chance to get market structure done," she posted on X on Wednesday. Moreno was even more pointed: "If we don't get the CLARITY Act passed by May, digital asset legislation will not pass for the foreseeable future."

The Senate's 2026 calendar is not working in the bill's favor. The midterm elections in November mean that floor time effectively closes for controversial legislation sometime around August, when lawmakers shift their attention to their races. A Senate majority that currently tilts Republican could flip to Democratic control after the vote, bringing new leadership to key committees and potentially shelving the bill for another cycle.

Making things more unpredictable, both parties are currently tangling over unrelated legislation and the U.S. involvement in the war in Iran, which threatens to consume floor time that crypto advocates would prefer to use for a market structure vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said as recently as last week that he did not expect the Banking Committee to pass the bill quickly. Whether that assessment holds is now up to the negotiators.

Prediction markets have priced the odds of the bill being signed into law in 2026 at around 72%, according to available data. JPMorgan analysts have described passage before midyear as a positive catalyst for digital assets, citing regulatory clarity, institutional scaling, and tokenization growth as key drivers. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has put his personal odds estimate even higher, at 80 to 90%.

Industry Money and Political Pressure
The stakes are reflected in the lobbying numbers. Total crypto industry lobbying expenditures topped $80 million in 2025. Fairshake, the industry's primary political action committee, had built a 2026 war chest of $193 million as of January, with Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz each contributing $24 to $25 million in the second half of last year alone. The day before the Senate Agriculture Committee's January markup, Fairshake made that announcement public.

For all the money, the legislative process has been messier than the industry hoped. A bill that many expected to be done before year-end 2025 is now racing a midterm election clock, dependent on a handful of senators reaching agreement on provisions they've been arguing about for months, and navigating a Senate floor schedule that no one fully controls.

Lummis, for her part, sounded more confident than she has in months. "We're going to have this thing done, come hell or high water, before the end of the year," she told the crowd in Washington.

Whether the rest of the Senate, the White House, and the clock agree with her is the only question left.