Prediction markets used to be weird section of the internet where die-hard political junkies placed small bets on election outcomes. That version appears to be gone. According to new data from blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, prediction markets have now cracked $20 billion in monthly trading volume, and the category driving most of that activity is not sports or elections but geopolitics.

 

That says something real about how the world has changed. Traders are no longer just wagering on who wins a Senate seat. They are pricing the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, assessing the likelihood of a Chinese military action in Taiwan, and putting money on whether Iran's Supreme Leader survives the year. These are not just fringe markets. They are, increasingly, some of the most liquid on the entire platform landscape.

 

The shift reflects a broader transformation in how both retail and institutional participants are using prediction markets. According to TRM Labs, geopolitics now accounts for the majority of activity by volume, a reversal from even 18 months ago when political elections and sports dominated the leaderboard. The firm's report points to a world in which macro uncertainty, military escalation, and trade conflict have become reliable generators of trading interest.

 

The numbers behind this story are hard to argue with. The global prediction market industry processed roughly $63.5 billion in total notional trading volume across 2025, up from about $15.8 billion the year prior. Yes, that's correct...four times the amount. In a single year. In 2022, the entire sector did around $500 million. The growth is extraordinary.

 

Two platforms sit at the center of all this. Polymarket and Kalshi together accounted for approximately 97.5 percent of total industry volume in 2025, according to aggregated data tracked by multiple research outlets. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange backed by a $1 billion Series E led by Paradigm, processed over $23 billion in notional volume last year. Polymarket, the blockchain-based platform that operates globally and recently cleared its U.S. legal hurdles following the change in administration, brought in comparable figures, though some of its reported numbers are complicated by a structural double-counting issue flagged by Paradigm in December.

 

 

By February 2026, the combined monthly run rate for the two platforms had climbed to roughly $16.8 billion, with Kalshi accounting for about $9.8 billion of that and Polymarket the remaining $7 billion. At that pace, the sector is on track to top $200 billion in annual volume, with some forecasts reaching $325 billion if growth continues. A report cited by CNBC projects prediction markets could approach $1.1 trillion in annual volume by the end of the decade.

 

What makes the TRM Labs data particularly interesting is the composition of what is being traded. The firm has been tracking prediction market activity not just for volume but for what that volume reveals about where geopolitical risk is being priced. As the Ukraine conflict has dragged on and tariff uncertainty under the current U.S. administration has remained elevated, contracts tied to those outcomes have attracted serious capital. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contracts on Polymarket have shifted repeatedly in response to diplomatic signals, functioning in a way that closely mirrors how traditional derivatives respond to macro news. Some institutional desks now watch these contracts alongside oil futures and sovereign bond spreads.

 

The Council on Foreign Relations noted earlier this year that prediction markets had demonstrated real forecasting credibility in a high-profile case. When the Trump administration was weighing strikes on Iran's nuclear program in mid-2025, many analysts dismissed the prospect as unlikely. Prediction markets assigned a 58 percent probability to strikes by the end of that week. Seven B-2 stealth bombers were already airborne.

 

That kind of accuracy does not happen every time, and anyone betting on these platforms should know that. Liquidity constraints still limit reliability on smaller or more obscure contracts, and the platforms have faced criticism over resolution disputes and rules design that has occasionally left winning bettors on the losing side. But on major geopolitical events where information is widely available and traders are motivated to get it right, the markets have shown a notable ability to aggregate collective judgment quickly.

 

The regulatory backdrop in the United States has shifted considerably in the past year. The Biden-era hostility to prediction markets has given way to a CFTC posture that is, by most accounts, far more permissive. Polymarket, which had been operating outside the U.S. and faced a federal investigation that included a raid on its founder's apartment, was cleared to operate domestically in late 2025. Kalshi, which had won its own legal battle over political markets in late 2024, has since integrated with Robinhood and Webull, putting its contracts in front of tens of millions of retail brokerage users.

 

The competition is intensifying. DraftKings and FanDuel have entered prediction markets, though analysts have suggested the two sports betting giants may have arrived too late to challenge Polymarket and Kalshi's entrenched liquidity. CertiK, the blockchain security firm, published a report in early 2026 flagging structural questions about sustainability once platform incentives fade, and noted that wash trading had inflated some Polymarket volumes in prior periods. Those are legitimate concerns for anyone trying to assess whether the sector's growth is as clean as the headline numbers suggest.

 

Still, the direction of travel is clear. Prediction markets have moved past the stage where they can be dismissed as a gambling novelty. The data from TRM Labs, taken alongside the broader market statistics, describes a financial layer that is increasingly responsive to the same forces that move bond markets and currency pairs. Geopolitics has always moved markets. What is new is that there is now a market specifically for geopolitics itself.